Optimum Level of Information

There is an upside-down U curve for how much information You have for a given task, or decision. It does not, however, seem as though people actively seek the correct information. Instead they continually want more.

<aside> 👉 When it comes to decision making, you need to edit the total volume of facts available to those few that are most relevant.

</aside>

More information tends to make people more CONFIDENT about their conclusions, even in situations where it makes the LESS CORRECT.

Examples

In a study where a series of students were asked to perform a war games exercise, they were given different amounts of information in a 30 minute period to help them perform their task. Some got only 2 pieces of information. Some received 25+ pieces of information. The optimum level of information for the task at hand was found to be at around 10-12 pieces. That’s when people did the best... but all participants asked for “more info” - even when more info made their performance worse.
A doctor named David Goldman created a simple algorithm that only took into account 4 pieces of information to determine if a patient at his hospital was having a genuine heart attack or not. After a 2-year soak test, comparing the algorithm against the best guesses of the doctors on staff, it was determined that the experts were right only 70% of the time, while the simple, easy-to-replicate algorithm was correct 95% of the time. More information clouded their judgement.

In cases where more information leads to a Law of Diminishing Returns, you're better off Satisficing to avoid Analysis Paralysis.

Related Notes

~7 - The Limit of Simultaneous Info

When to Decide